Tom Robinson's Blog

 

Third Quarter 2006 Market Highlights

As I noted in the prior quarter, this has been a roller coaster year for stock markets and this quarter was certainly on the incline.  It was an exceptional quarter for large stocks and even bonds.  A couple of asset classes lagged as I will present below.  We owe this quarter’s performance to the Federal Reserve’s decision to pause their interest rate increases along with continued good economic fundamentals.  This puts us in a catch-22 situation, if the economy does well, inflation may rear its ugly head and the Federal Reserve may raise rates again.  On the other hand, if the economy slows down too much we could head into a recession.  What we need is a moderate situation where inflation is tame, but the economy continues to grow.  If this occurs, the Federal Reserve could lower rates next year easing the burden on individuals and companies who have borrowed at floating rates.

Here are the recent and cumulative returns of some major market sectors.  As noted in my earlier musings, I prefer to use index funds to measure returns (including dividends and trading costs) rather than the indices themselves.  These are the returns you actually would have received investing in these funds, rather than hypothetical index returns.

Total Returns (including dividends) Through September 30, 2006

 

Third

Year To

5 Year

10 Year

 

 

 

Quarter

Date

Average

Average

Sector

Vanguard Fund

Ticker

2006

2006

Annual

Annual

Large Cap U.S. Stock Index

500 Index Fund

VFINX

5.62%

8.42%

6.85%

8.51%

Broad U.S. Stock Index

Total Stock Market Index Fund

VTSMX

4.50%

7.91%

8.45%

8.56%

Broad International Index

Total International Stock Index

VGTSX

3.97%

13.88%

15.42%

6.80%

Real Estate Investment Trust Index

REIT Index Fund

VGSIX

9.39%

23.84%

21.71%

15.21%

Long-Term Bond Index

Long-Term Bond Index Fund

VBLTX

6.81%

1.42%

6.93%

8.09%

Mid-Cap U.S. Stock Index (Medium size companies)

Mid-Cap Index Fund

VIMSX

1.30%

5.79%

14.41%

NA

Small-Cap U.S. Stock Index

Small-Cap Index Fund

NAESX

-0.26%

6.61%

14.08%

9.70%

Note that large stocks (particularly U.S. stocks) outperformed small and mid cap stocks this quarter.  Perhaps the most surprising return this quarter is that of Real Estate Investment Trusts which continued to trounce the other asset classes.  Remember REITS represent commercial property, hotels, apartments, etc., – not your local personal residence or the condominium market.  You need to be careful not to chase returns using this data.  History has shown that the best performing investment next year is unlikely to have been the one that performed best last year.  REITs have had a good run and many are very high priced at this point.  I would not expect the coming quarters to have any where near these returns, in fact, I think buying opportunities may occur in the future, especially if long term interest rates rise. 

Remember, a diversified portfolio with representation of many asset classes (types of investments) reduces risk and can help you sleep better at night.  Don’t put all of your eggs in one basket (but if you do, watch that basket very closely).

 

MORE >>
Posted by Tom Robinson at 10/14/2006 7:05 PM | View Comments (0) | Add Comment | Trackbacks (0)
Sustainable Retirement Withdrawals

2006 is a significant year for baby boomers (those of us born between 1946 and 1964).  The first baby boomers turn 60 this year - kindling thoughts of retirement.  If you are in this group and have saved wisely over the years, investing in retirement accounts and accumulating a significant portfolio, how much can you safely withdraw from these accounts each year without fear of running out of money during a “normal” retirement time horizon?  Unfortunately, probably less than you might think.

 

Let’s assume that:

  • You have accumulated $1,000,000 in tax-deferred retirement accounts
  • Long-term stock returns are expected to be 9% per year - a little lower than the average return during the past 80 years or so (with a standard deviation of 20% - a measure of the volatility of returns)
  • Long-term government bond returns are expected to be 5% per year (with a standard deviation of 9%)
  • Long-term inflation is expected to be 3%.

 

If you invest 100% of your portfolio in stocks and desire to withdraw enough each year such that the remaining funds are reinvested to increase future payments by the rate of inflation, you might assume that you could safely withdraw $60,000 (9% minus 3% inflation) the first year, $61,800 the second year, and so on, without ever running out of money.  Unfortunately, this is only possible if stocks had a return of 9% every single year with no variability.  In reality, stock returns are variable and several years of consecutive losses can occur – impairing your ability to maintain withdrawals at the planned level.  Using historical volatility, the above assumptions and software which permits running many possible scenarios reveals that if you invest 100% of your portfolio in stocks you actually have about a 50% probability of running out of money within 30 years (withdrawing $60,000 each year adjusted for inflation).

 

A 50% probability of running out of money is not very attractive.  Using the same software we can determine that the maximum “sustainable” withdrawal amount which would reduce the probability of running out of money in 30 years to 10% is about $27,500 adjusted for inflation! 

 

What if we had invested in long-term government bonds instead?  The maximum “sustainble” withdrawal amount (keeping the probability of running out of money within 30 years at 10%) is about $29,000.  

 

While stocks have historically had higher returns they are more variable, bonds provide a higher sustainable withdrawal amount.  However, while the sustainable withdrawal may be higher for bonds the average wealth accumulation in the event you don’t run out of money is expected to be lower (less money on average to leave to your heirs if that is one of your objectives).

 

As noted in earlier posts, diversification is important.  It is especially helpful during  retirement.  Using the above assumptions, consider the following portfolios and the maximum sustainable, inflation-adjusted withdrawal (keeping the probability of running out of money within 30 years at 10%):

 

            70% Stocks/30% Bonds                      $32,000

            50% Stocks/50% Bonds                      $34,000

            30% Stocks/70% Bonds                      $34,000

 

By diversifying between stocks and bonds you can improve the sustainability of your retirement withdrawals!  Once again this demonstrates the benefits of investing in different asset classes that do not always move in the same direction rather than putting all of your eggs in one basket.  This example only considers two assets classes (stocks and bonds).  Further improvement can be made by including other assets classes such as real estate investment trusts and international securities.  Sustainable withdrawals can also be enhanced by using risk reducing techniques such as a covered call strategy (more on this on a later date).

 

As always, your asset allocation will depend on your risk tolerance, current market conditions and expectations.  Also your asset allocation during your pre-retirement (accumulation) years is likely to be different that your asset allocation during retirement (distribution) years.  During pre-retirement years more volatility can be tolerated as annual distributions are not being made.

MORE >>
Posted by Tom Robinson at 8/8/2006 9:02 PM | View Comments (0) | Add Comment | Trackbacks (0)
Achieving Diversification with Exchange Traded Funds

As mentioned in last week’s posting, achieving diversification is a key part of the investment process.  Investment types do not all go up or down together.  During some periods stocks may do well, while bonds or real estate may do better in other periods.  The extent to which types of investments move together is correlation.  If investments always move up and down in sync, they are said to be highly correlated.  If they move in opposite directions, they are negatively correlated.  Diversification involved selecting investments which are NOT highly correlated with each other.  This helps to dampen the volatility of the overall portfolio and helps investors sleep at night.  Expanding your investment horizon to include investments which are not highly correlated can be accomplished using stocks and bonds from different international markets or through mutual funds.  Until recently it was not so easy to included other investments such as currencies and commodities which have historically had a low correlation with stocks and bonds.  Including these types of investments improves diversification since stock an bond prices may suffer in an inflationary environment, but commodity investments may do wll in that same environment.


This has changed with the proliferation of exchange traded funds in recent years.  An exchange traded fund (ETF) is a mutual fund that trades throughout the day like a stock.  ETFs have been available for many years in various international sectors (for example a Japan ETF) and types of investments (growth stocks, value, stocks. short term bonds, long term bonds, etc.).  Recently new ETFs have become available which invest in gold, silver, currencies and baskets of commodities.  It is now easy to achieve even greater diversification by investing in these types of assets.  An commodity ETF representing a basket of six commodities (light sweet crude oil, heating oil, gold, aluminum, corn and wheat) became available in early 2006.  More recently, two exchange traded notes (ETNs) have become available representing an even broader basket of commodities (over 20 commodities).  ETNs are a little different than ETFs.  ETNs are notes (like a loan) backed by the commodities, so it is essential that they are issued by a reputable firm to minimize credit risk.  The two recently issued ETNs are issued by a prominent financial firm which is also a large issuer of ETFs.

 

In addition to diversification, ETFs can be used in other investment strategies such as hedging a portfolio.  For example, if you own stocks in oil and gas companies but feel that oil and gas prices may fall you could take a short position on a commodity ETF concentrated in oil and gas.  If you are concerned about the falling dollar, you can purchase a currency ETF on foreign currencies (there are now several available). These currency ETFs also earn interest which can more than offset underlying expenses and provide income in addition to the currency exposure.  Stock options are available on some ETFs so that options strategies such as covered calls can be  implemented. 

 

As with any investment, investments in individual ETFs must be considered carefully.  While diversification is desirable, some commodities are at record high prices and it may be wise to wait for a suitable entry price.

MORE >>
Posted by Tom Robinson at 7/9/2006 6:32 PM | View Comments (0) | Add Comment | Trackbacks (0)
Second Quarter Market Highlights

This has been a roller coaster year for stock markets (as well as for my alleged Genghis Khan ancestry).  After the close of the markets on Friday the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) Online reported:

“Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 40.58 points to 11150.22, leaving it up 0.4% for the quarter and ahead by 4% for the year. It was the fourth straight quarter the blue-chip average has posted an advance.

The Standard & Poor's 500-stock index fell 2.02 to 1270.85, leaving it down 1.9% for the quarter and up 1.8% year-to-date. The Nasdaq Composite Index shed 2.63 Friday to 2172.09. The tech-heavy index fell 7.2% in the second quarter and is down 1.5% for the year.”  Online.wsj.com, “Rocky First Half for Stocks,” June 30, 2006, 9:19PM.

First the good news – they got the numbers wrong (or more precisely they got the wrong numbers).  Now the bad news – they were pretty close.  Business journalists tend to focus on the price performance of the market indices which gives an incomplete picture of the actual performance of the market.  The stock indices such as the S&P 500 are a weighting of the stock prices of the underlying stocks (500 stocks in the case of the S&P 500).  When you invests in securities there are two components to your return; periodic income (such as interest and dividends) and appreciation in price (or as in the case of the quarter just ended - depreciation).  The price indices discussed in the WSJ article only include the price portion.  It is more relevant to focus on the total return, including the periodic income received.  Dividends (and interest in the case of bonds) are an important component of returns. 

Unfortunately, total return indices are not easily accessible to the average investor.  An easily accessible alternative is to look at the actual performance (total returns) of index mutual funds.  This has a second advantage over the price indices.  Investing has costs associated with it (trading and sometimes management fees).  The total returns of index funds, from fund families such as Vanguard and Fidelity, include not only income but also a reasonable amount for trading costs and management.  These are a better proxy of returns that are actually available in the market.  As an example, here is the performance through June 30, 2006 from a sampling of Vanguard index funds:

Total Returns Through June 30, 2006

 

First

Second

Year To

5 Year

10 Year

 

 

 

Quarter

Quarter

Date

Average

Average

Sector

Vanguard Fund

Ticker

2006

2006

2006

Annual

Annual

Large Cap U.S. Stock Index

500 Index Fund

VFINX

4.18%

-1.48%

2.64%

2.37%

8.24%

Broad U.S. Stock Index

Total Stock Market Index Fund

VTSMX

5.37%

-1.99%

3.27%

3.84%

8.39%

Broad International Index

Total International Stock Index

VGTSX

9.46%

0.06%

9.53%

10.89%

6.35%

REIT Index

REIT Index Fund

VGSIX

14.78%

-1.37%

13.21%

18.92%

14.89%

Long-Term Bond Index

Long-Term Bond Index Fund

VBLTX

-3.42%

-1.68%

-5.04%

6.60%

7.55%

Note that the year to date return on the Vanguard S&P 500 Index Fund through June 30, 2006 was 2.64% versus the 1.8% reported by the WSJ.  This is not a stellar return, but gives you a better picture of what you could have achieved in this market.

Lets focus on what this data tells us:

·        The markets have been volatile this year with very strong returns in the first quarter (other than for long-term bonds) and poor returns in the second quarter.  Volatility like this occurs when there is uncertainty, which we have a lot of right now.  There is uncertainty as to inflation, interest rates and IRAQ.  The Federal Reserve Board has been steadily increasing interest rates to head off inflation, but there is uncertainty as to when they will stop and concern that they might raise interest rates too far.  Volatility is likely to continue until some of these uncertainties are resolved.

·        Broad U.S. market indices (as opposed to the S&P 500 which represents large stocks) have outperformed for all periods shown above except the second quarter.  The broad market index includes small and mid cap stocks which have outperformed large stocks in recent years, but which can be more volatile.  Also in times of distress there is often a “flight to quality” – large well known stocks.  Note, however, that investing in these broader market indices provides greater diversification than limiting your investments to one sector.

·        Broad international markets have outperformed the U.S. stock markets for the last five years, but not over the last 10 years.

·        Real estate in the form of Real Estate Investment Trusts or REITS (these are real estate businesses such as commercial property, hotels, apartments, etc., – not your local condo market) has continued to outperform the stock markets.

·        Long-term bonds, considered by some to be a bastion of safety, have been a lousy place to be.  This is not surprising since long-term bonds are expected to do poorly in a rising interest rate environment.

The bottom line is diversification, diversification and diversification.  No one can predict future returns.  By having an adequately diversified portfolio including U.S. stocks, international stocks, REITs and other assets you can obtain a satisfactory return while reducing risk.  With the introduction of many new Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) which invest in asset classes such as commodities you can achieve even greater diversification while hedging against inflation.  Don’t put all of your eggs in one basket (but if you do watch that basket very closely).

If you want to learn a little more about the benefits of asset allocation (investing in different types of assets) – see that topic on my other blog (www.financial-education.com). Asset allocation involves selecting what percentage of your overall portfolio goes into stocks, bonds and other assets.  This does not necessarily mean, however, that you always keep these percentages the same - your asset allocation should also consider current market conditions.  For example, I don’t know what is going to happen to long-term interest rates in the future – but if interest rates continue to rise long-term bonds will suffer more.  You can currently obtain a rate of return on certificates of deposit, money market accounts and short-term government bonds which is not much less than investing in long-term bonds.  Why take the risk of investing in long-term bonds at this time?  It might be advisable to wait until long-term bonds returns are paying a sufficiently higher return to compensate you for the risk.

MORE >>
Posted by Tom Robinson at 7/2/2006 4:58 PM | View Comments (0) | Add Comment | Trackbacks (0)
15 Minutes of Fame Winds Down
I think the press coverage on this topic is winding down and I will soon revert this blog to its original purpose (investment/accounting related).  I will periodically post any updates although I will not be seeking a third opinion - just confirmation of any pending results of tests.  Family Tree DNA has posted a larger set of "Genghis Khan" markers on their website at:

http://www.familytreedna.com/matchgenghis.com

In addition to the fact that I am confirmed haplogroup R1a (not C3); looking at the broader 25 markers noted here it is pretty evident I match on only 12 (source www.ysearch.org).  I only wish I had all of this data a few weeks ago!
.

Last Name Origin 3
9
3
3
9
0
1
9
3
9
1
3
8
5
a
3
8
5
b
4
2
6
3
8
8
4
3
9
3
8
9
|
1
3
9
2
3
8
9
|
2
4
5
8
4
5
9
a
4
5
9
b
4
5
5
4
5
4
4
4
7
4
3
7
4
4
8
4
4
9
4
6
4
a
4
6
4
b
4
6
4
c
4
6
4
d

Robinson Miami, Florida, USA  13 25 16 10 12 14 12 12 10 13 11 31 15 8 10 11 11 24 14 20 32 12 15 15 16

Genghis Khan deduced Y-DNA Profile Mongolia  13 25 16 10 12 13 11 14 10 13 11 29 18 8 8 11 12 26 14 22 27 11 11 12 16

With a genetic distance of 23.


User ID Last Name Origin Haplogroup Tested With Markers Compared Genetic Distance

Robinson Miami, Florida, USA  R1a  Family Tree DNA  - -

Genghis Khan deduced Y-DNA Profile Mongolia  C3  Family Tree DNA  25 23


It has certainly been interesting and I still plan to visit Mongolia.  I just won't be meeting any long lost relatives there.

Tom "Ex-Khan" Robinson

MORE >>
Posted by Tom Robinson at 6/22/2006 7:52 PM | View Comments (0) | Add Comment | Trackbacks (0)
News Articles Today
When I posted the blog last week, I also let the reporters I had talked to know about the results so they could get the correct information out there. 

Here are links to news articles in the New York Times and Miami Herald.

SCIENCE   | June 21, 2006
Back to Earth After Taking Fall From Genghis's Family Tree
By NICHOLAS WADE
A second DNA test has revealed that an accounting professor is not descended from Genghis Khan after all.

Professor's Genghis Khan roots die a quick deathA University of Miami accounting professor 
who garnered brief fame for his genetic link to Genghis Khan will have to put his dreams of
marauding on hold. The full article will be available on the Web for a limited time:
http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/news/local/14864728.htm (c) 2006 MiamiHerald.com and wire service sources. All Rights Reserved.

MORE >>
Posted by Tom Robinson at 6/21/2006 8:27 AM | View Comments (1) | Add Comment | Trackbacks (0)
Genghis Khan or Not? That is the Question.

There has been a great deal of interest in the story regarding my Y-Chromosome DNA being closely related to that of the descendants of Genghis Khan.  There have been some additional developments that I felt needed to be shared publicly, but first some background information.

 

During 2002, I was doing some work on my family history, trying to develop a family tree.  Our family records were not very comprehensive.  My uncle had done some research on my maternal side (Mayton) that indicated that this side of the family began in recent history in Virginia, migrated to North Carolina, then Alabama and then Florida over about 7 or so generations.  No information was available as to how/when they migrated from “across the pond” or from where.  On my father’s side less information was available.  Using census and other data on Ancestry.com, I know that my great-grandfather was born in Illinois and that my great-great grandfather was likely born in the lake district of England and immigrated to Illinois. 

 

I had read several books on the subject of tracing origins using DNA including Seven Daughters of Eve by Bryan Sykes (see references later) and decided to have my DNA tested by Oxford Ancestors (www.oxfordancestors.com) which is associated with Bryan Sykes.  I received my results in early 2003 which provided a Y-line signature (10 markers) and detailed information on my mitochondrial DNA.  The results indicated on the maternal side that the mitochondrial DNA may have originated on what is now the coast of France/Spain.  The Y-line information was not specific as to origin, but could be used to search Y-DNA databases for similar patterns.  These searches turned up few exact matches but some close matches in Central Europe.

 

Not too long after this I learned that Family Tree DNA was performing similar tests using 25 markers (they currently offer up to 67 markers).  Believing that more evidence is always better, I had new tests done from scratch at Family Tree DNA.  My DNA markers were the same on the markers common to Oxford Ancestors.  Searching the Family Tree DNA database revealed no exact matches at that time (there is one on 12 markers now) but many close matches in places such as China, India, Germany, Poland and other Central European locations.  My research on DNA stopped here.  I went back working in the other direction periodically checking Ancestry.com and ordering birth records to fill in my family tree (without a lot of success).

 

In April, I received a call from Oxford Ancestors letting me know that they had done additional research (not at my request) based on recent research on the descendants of Genghis Khan.  While Genghis Khan’s DNA has not been found, I understand from published research (see The Genetic Legacy of the Mongols in references below) that it has been “inferred” from living individuals.  You should also know that this research shows that about 8% of the men in the area from the Pacific to the Caspian Sea share this DNA pattern, comprising about 0.5% of the world male population (Genghis was a busy man).  In talking with Bryan Sykes, I learned that they were looking at 9 specific markers in their database and found that I matched on 7 out of the 9 and was the closest in their database from outside the area described above.  I agreed to have my name included in a press release from Oxford Ancestors which stated, in part:

 

Oxford Ancestors, the world’s foremost and leading company in ancestral DNA analysis has uncovered the first American descendent of the great warlord Genghis Khan... Tom Robinson, Associate Professor of Accountancy and professional investment consultant, of Miami, Florida, USA.

 

Tom Robinson teaches at the University of Miami, he is a well published author on financial analysis and valuation and he serves as an investment advisor. His expertise leads the Miami-born and based Professor around the globe and in this fact he resembles another man who has seen the world: the 13th century Mongol warlord, and ruler of the largest land empire in history, stretching from Eastern Europe all the way to the South China Sea, Genghis Khan.

 

But a far greater commonality was revealed to him when he found out about his ancestry through Oxford Ancestors, the world’s first and premier DNA analysis company founded and run by the progenitor of modern genealogy Professor Bryan Sykes. It turns out that Dr Robinson is a direct descendent of Genghis, and he is the first American to find this out through a genetic test. His Y-Chromosome bears an astonishing seven out of nine possible genetic markers identical to Genghis Khan’s (as DNA mutates over generations, two altering DNA markers is a remarkably low number for a period stretching over 700 years).

 

Subsequently I received a certificate (suitable for framing) that states:

 

“This is to certify that Thomas R Robinson carries a Y-chromosome which shows him to be of probable direct descent from Genghis Khan, First Emperor of the Mongols.”

 

The results did come as a surprise and I inquired as to how the DNA of the Mongolians would have ended up in England.  Professor Sykes speculated that the Vikings acquired slaves in Central Europe in an area that the Mongolians had conquered (see Jack Weatherford’s excellent book for the range of land Genghis conquered) and that these slaves may have ended up in England. While we will never know, it is an interesting conjecture.

 

I was not expecting all of the press coverage and attention being paid to this story since it did not appear I was an exact match and it seemed from published research that there were apparently a lot of potential offspring from Genghis that shared this DNA.  In correspondence with one reporter, Noah Bierman at the Miami Herald, the subject was raised about having more comprehensive DNA testing done.  Shortly thereafter I received an inquiry from JWM Productions about my travelling to Mongolia this summer to participate in filming of a previously scheduled documentary-type production.  They happened to be working with Family Tree DNA.  We tentatively booked the trip, but both JWM and I felt that we should have the results verified independently.
 

Bennett Greenspan of Family Tree DNA generously agreed to look at my results and run an SNP test to determine my haplogroup classification (see www.familytreedna.com for more information – they can explain it better than I).   In looking at my markers, Mr. Greenspan felt that it was appropriate to examine at least 12 markers and that one marker in particular (DYS 426 which is slow mutating) is particularly important.  While I matched on 8 of the 12 markers he looked at, one of the non-matches was DYS 426.  He indicated that he felt I was more likely haplogroup R1a than C3.  As I understand it the haplogroup places an individual on a limb of the global family tree and is therefore diagnostic in determining the geographic origin.  If the haplogroup test classified me as C3 that would be consistent with Mongolian ancestry and the results associated with descendants of Genghis Khan.  If on the other hand, if it confirmed R1a I was definitely related to a different Haplogroup group.  Here is what www.familytreedna.com says about R1a:

The R1a lineage is believed to have originated in the Eurasian Steppes north of the Black & Caspian Seas. This lineage is thought to descend from a population of the Kurgan culture, known for the domestication of the horse (circa 3000 B.C.E.). These people were also believed to be the first speakers of the Indo-European language group. This lineage is found in central & western Asia, India, and in Slavic populations of Europe.

On June 13, Mr. Greenspan advised me that their SNP test confirmed a classification as R1a.  He advised me that the predecessor of this group of people was thought to have migrated out of Africa 50,000 years ago or so, eventually into Central Asia and later to Eastern Europe.  Later some went to Scandinavian countries and those who moved onward to Western Europe became known as Vikings.

 

So where does this leave us?  I have done a lot of reading of research papers.  Two that are listed below seem the most relevant.  One written in 2003, Genetic Legacy of the Mongols, appeared to use 15 or 16 DNA markers in their study.  Four of these markers are not tested by either Oxford Ancestors or Family Tree DNA.  A more recent study (2005), Genetic Evidence for the Mongolian Ancestry of Kalmyks, used only 9 markers. In both studies Haplogroup C3 was considered diagnostic for the lineage Genghis Khan. Family Tree DNA reports that in their worldwide database, including 572 men from Mongolia, 47 match the Family Tree DNA 12 marker Genghis Khan modal haplotype.  This represents 8.2% of the Mongolian group which reflects the scientific studies on this haplotype as well.  All of these individuals are confirmed as being part of haplogroup C3.

I am obviously not an expert in this area (my PhD is in accounting not DNA) so I don’t know how many markers are appropriate, however the Haplogroup assignment appears important.  Based on my reading I have compiled my DNA markers with those used in the articles and compared them to what I believe is a 13 marker Mongolian benchmark.  The Mongolian benchmark I am showing here is my creation based on the articles and my understanding of nomenclature changes that have occurred.  It is not official and did not come from Oxford Ancestors or Family Tree DNA.  Other, more knowledgeable, individuals should feel free to correct me!

 

 

Oxford

Family Tree DNA

Composite

Mongolian

Marker

Ancestors

 

 

Benchmark

 

Robinson

Robinson

Robinson

**Unofficial**

DYS19

16

16

16

16

DYS388

12

12

12

14

DYS390

25

25

25

25

DYS391

10

10

10

10

DYS392

11

11

11

11

DYS393

13

13

13

13

DYS389I

13

13

13

13

DYS389II

31

31

31

29

DYS425

12

 

12

12

DYS426

12

12

12

11

DYS439

 

10

10

10

DYS437

 

14

14

14

DYS385a

 

12

12

12

 

From this data, it appears that I match on 9 out of 13 markers used in research papers.  From the 2005 paper Kalmyks classified as haplogroup C3 had DYS 389II ranging from 29 to 31 (although they used slightly different nomenclature).  This paper does not mention DYS 426 at all.

 

I will leave it to you to make your own conclusions regarding these results but here are mine.  As an academic I always believe in looking at as much evidence as possible.  The only things I am willing to conclude based on the weight of the evidence at this point is:

  • My Y-Chromosome ancestors were likely nomadic horsemen in Central Asia/Eastern Europe, but not Genghis Khan (and I will not be taken that previously scheduled trip to Mongolia).
  • Vikings may have been involved.
  • While I may be the closest match to the Mongolian DNA from west of the Caucasus mountains in databases at this point in time, other closer matches are likely to be found some of whom will be haplogroup C3.  There goes any inheritance!
  • I am an accountant (not practicing), living in the Miami area.

 

I hope to learn more in the future and will keep you posted.


Tom Robinson

[Note entry revised June 19 to include name of production company and to make my conclusions clearer per reader input] 

 

Useful Articles and Books (in no particular order)

 

“The Genetic Legacy of the Mongols,” Zerjal, et. al., American Journal of Human Genetics, 72:  717-721, 2003.

 

“Genetic Evidence for the Mongolian Ancestry of Kalmyks,” Nasidze, et. al., American Journal of Physical Anthropology, 2005, Online Publication.

 

Mapping Human History:  Genes, Race and Our Common Origins, Steve Olson, Mariner Books, 2002.

 

The Journey of Man, Spencer Wells, Princeton University Press, 2002.

 

Genghis Kahn and the Making of the Modern World, Jack Weatherford, Three Rivers Press, 2004.

 

The Seven Daughters of Eve, Bryan Sykes, Bantam Press, 2001.

 

Adam’s Curse:  A Future Without Men, Bryan Sykes, Bantam Press, 2003.

 

Before the Dawn, Nicholas Wade, Penguin Press, 2006.

 

 

MORE >>
Posted by Tom Robinson at 6/16/2006 12:33 AM | View Comments (10) | Add Comment | Trackbacks (1)